Market Intelligence Update for October 2025

An update on the current market dynamics from China and Southeast Asia to Australia for October. This includes carrier movements, pricing trends, service disruptions, and key predictions for the coming months.

Carriers’ Service Highlights & Movements:

• COSCO: Prioritizes large-volume customers ,facing some capacity cuts due to the ongoing blank sailings, expect delays for shipments transshipped via HK.
• TS Line: Focuses on specific South China and SE Asia routes; Offers competitive short-term contracts. The carrier’s direct services from Guangzhou and Shenzhen to Australia have been less affected by port congestion, though smaller vessel sizes may lead to rollovers during high-demand periods.
• EMC: Focuses on reliability over volume. Offers direct services with fewer transshipment delays but higher rates. While EMC has been relatively stable, they are still struggling with space allocation issues due to the ongoing blank sailings by their partner lines in THE Alliance and Ocean Alliance.
• MSC: Dominates the China-Australia lane with flexible schedules and large vessels; Expect longer transit times for low-priority shipments when vessel bunching occurs.
• ONE: is increasing capacity from Southeast Asia, but smaller vessels and less frequent sailing schedules contribute to transshipment delays ; Expanding Southeast Asia routes, especially from Vietnam and Thailand. While rates are competitive, transshipment delays can occur from smaller feeder ports.
• Maersk: Consolidating China-Australia services into larger Asia-network. Offers premium services, but longer transit times and limited capacity during peak seasons.
• Southeast Asia – Australia Direct Services:
  Carriers like ONE, OOCL, and PIL are promoting direct services from Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia to Australia. These routes offer viable alternatives, but the smaller vessel sizes and less frequent schedules may lead to bottlenecks.
• Space & Equipment Guarantee:
  Space Availability: As carriers enforce capacity management strategies, space guarantee becomes a key challenge. Bookings may be confirmed, but rollovers remain a significant risk. MSC, COSCO, and Maersk are all prioritizing contractual clients for space. Bookings are being rolled over more frequently for lower-volume or spot-rate shipments.
• Transshipment Delays: Major transshipment hubs such as Singapore, Port Klang, and Hong Kong continue to face disruptions due to network adjustments by various carriers, especially in the face of tight capacity and changing schedules.

Pricing Trends & Rate Forecast for October:

• Expect GRIs to be announced; Secure space and rates for October/early November shipments now to avoid the next wave of rate hikes.
• South China: Slightly more stable, but still firm. Carriers are pushing for rates up for mid-October ETDs.
• Southeast Asia: The market remains fragmented. Rates from Haiphong and Cat Lai are strong, while Thailand remains more competitive. Expect a GRI push in the second half of October.
• Forecast: Rates will remain firm throughout October. A slight correction is possible in late November/Early December, but carriers’ capacity discipline suggests a “new normal” of rates well above 2023/2024 level.

Recommendations:

• Book Early: Given the space constraints, it is strongly recommend booking shipments at least 2–3 weeks in advance to secure space and favorable rates.
• Monitor Rate Changes: As the peak season continues, rate fluctuations may occur. Please stay in close communication with us for any immediate updates or last-minute rate adjustments.
• Plan for Delays: Expect potential delays at both Chinese ports and Australian destinations. It is recommend factoring in extra lead time for critical shipments.

We hope this update offers clear insights into the current market situation. Please feel free to reach out if you have any questions or require further support in managing your shipments.

The October market update paints a challenging yet adaptive picture for sea freight between China, Southeast Asia, and Australia. With carriers tightening capacity and transshipment delays persisting, shippers face ongoing pressure to plan ahead and secure space early.